The week in nuclear: 26 October to 1 November 2026

Iran's nuclear file at the Security Council

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told the UN Security Council on 27 October that the agency had seen no activity since June 2025 to repair facilities damaged in the 2025 and 2026 attacks on Iran, and that Iran had not provided the information and access needed to verify its declared nuclear material, including 440 kg of highly enriched uranium, The New Arab reported. The briefing followed the IAEA board's 9 September referral of Iran to the council. At the same session, Russia's envoy Vassily Nebenzia and China's envoy Fu Cong said Resolution 2231 expired in October 2025 and the council has no basis to keep considering the file, according to WANA and Press TV. On 28 October Iran's ISNA reported Russia's Vienna envoy Mikhail Ulyanov as saying guarantees are needed against further attacks on Iran's nuclear sites, a demand he has made before.

Pressure and mediation between Washington and Tehran

The Wall Street Journal reported on 27 October that the US had told several Gulf Arab states to prepare for a possible short, intense campaign against Iran after the 3 November midterm elections, with potential targets reportedly including nuclear facilities; the paper said President Trump has not made a final decision. Israel's N12 reported on 28 October, citing diplomatic sources, that Washington told Iranian officials a strike would proceed unless Tehran transferred its highly enriched uranium to the US, halted regional attacks and reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The US government has not confirmed that report. At a rally in Lubbock, Texas, on 27 October, Trump said Iran's leaders "fully understand that they will never, ever have a nuclear weapon", according to a Roll Call Factbase transcript.

On the diplomatic track, Reuters reported that Qatari mediators delivered a draft deal in Tehran on 25 October. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on 28 October that Doha's ideas were "unacceptable" and that Iran's policy of no flexibility on the nuclear issue was unchanged. The Guardian reported that Gulf states are drafting a multipart plan, with European diplomats saying readmission of UN inspectors to Iran's bombed sites is a minimum US requirement. On 31 October Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that an Iranian delegation was in Doha, that Tehran had studied a letter from US Vice President JD Vance, and that the US attempt to open dialogue was "a positive step". He said no meeting with US officials was planned for now.

Debate in Tehran over doctrine and the NPT

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, told state television on 31 October that a debate is under way on whether Iran should keep its nuclear doctrine if war resumes, but that no new decision has been taken, Press TV and Reuters reported. On 1 November former foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki, now an MP, said parliament would vote unanimously to reconsider NPT membership if asked, while stressing the decision rests with the Leader, Mehr reported. A withdrawal bill has been with parliament's presiding board since September. Iran International reported that the IRGC-affiliated Fars agency circulated street interviews presenting a bomb as a popular demand, and said they give no reliable measure of opinion.

On civil programmes, AEOI spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi said on 28 October that Iran is finalising a protocol with Russia to jointly build small modular reactors. Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev said staff at Bushehr will reach 200 in November, up from 135 reported on 12 October.

Missile launches and the Korean peninsula

Russia's Defence Ministry said on 28 October that the Borei-A submarine Generalissimus Suvorov fired a Bulava missile from a submerged position in the Sea of Okhotsk toward the Chizha range in Arkhangelsk region, as planned training. On 29 October South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said North Korea fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles from the Wonsan area that flew about 250 km, NBC News reported. Japan said they did not appear to land in its exclusive economic zone. USNI News covered both launches.

• The US Treasury sanctioned 10 people and one Russia-based entity on 28 October over North Korean IT worker schemes it said fund weapons programmes.
• Kim Jong Un told army company commanders to intensify training for war readiness, KCNA reported; it did not mention nuclear weapons.
• North Korean howitzers were photographed near the DMZ; Seoul's JCS said they are an older system.
• Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis was scheduled to visit Pyongyang on 29 and 30 October to reopen Switzerland's office.

Zaporizhzhia, deterrent forces and disarmament diplomacy

The IAEA said on 29 October that a Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant employee was killed in a drone attack that day, according to Reuters as carried by Biztoc. Elsewhere, three of Britain's four Vanguard-class submarines were reported at sea at once, which Navy Lookout said does not signal a change in posture; the US Air Force awarded Lockheed Martin $694 million to produce the ARRW hypersonic missile; and the NNSA held a routine radiation-detection exercise over northwest Las Vegas. At the UN, the First Committee adopted a Japan-led abolition resolution by 150 to 7 with 25 abstentions, The Japan Times reported, and Kazakhstan proposed closer coordination among nuclear-weapon-free zones. Chinese arms control official Dai Huaicheng told TASS that Japan's separated plutonium could theoretically supply several thousand warheads.